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The first thing you have to know is that we never left the BEAR MARKET and the first thing you have to know is the meaning of Secular. The word “secular” means long periods of time, and indeed the secular bear is well-deserving of this moniker. Throughout history, secular bears have had average durations of 17 years each! These great bears follow great bulls, which also happen to average 17 years. One complete secular-bull-to-secular-bear cycle runs 34 years, a third of a century.

In each Secular Bull or Bear there are cycles (the one that I was talking earlier today in the chat, that could last months of even a year or two. See what happened in Bear market of 2002 and 2003)
The larger bear cycle is measured in decades, while the smaller are measured in months or years. The larger bears are known as secular bears while the smaller ones are cyclical bears.

Usually Secular bears are driven by valuations, cyclical bears are usually driven by sentiment. Our current secular bear started back in early 2000 because stock valuations were extreme, remember the TECH bubble in 1999-2000?

So from a valuation perspective, today’s secular bear is indeed only half over. Over the next 8 years, the stock markets are very unlikely to get materially higher than their early 2000 and late 2007 levels at best. This is around 1550 on the SPX. when you are in a secular bear market you have to trade it with caution. I would say INVEST instead. If you are trading with a longer outlook you have to be careful going long (position size).
But an overarching 17-year sideways grind certainly doesn’t mean they should totally avoid stocks in a secular bear, it does not mean that you cannot go long stocks or we wont have rallies. They are not 17 years of falling prices, but 17 years of sideways action between cyclical-bull-then-cyclical-bear cycle. Companies and stock markets don’t cease to exist just because people are scared, life and the economy always march on.

From March 2000 to October 2002, the SPX fell 49% in a cyclical bear. But out of those oversold depths a new cyclical bull emerged that carried this index 102% higher by October 2007, this is called CYCLICAL BULL within a Secular bear
So from its late 2007 heights another cyclical bear emerged. This one dragged the SPX down 57% by March 2009 as you might have experienced it, once again carrying it to the bottom of its secular trading range.

So this particular cyclical BULL (if you want to call it like that, I call it Bear market RALLY) we’ve entered in the last 3 months is about to finish or have already ended. I never bought this rally thinking in a longer term, Im shorting this rally because I know we are going lower...I have been scaling in two big positions like SMN and QID.

If Im not wrong today you asked me about valuation..... Between October 9th, 2002 and October 9th, 2007, the SPX blasted 102% higher in one of the longest cyclical bulls, yet after this run, after more than doubling in exactly 5 years, the valuations at the late 2007 top (21.3x) were lower than at the late 2002 bottom. This is about 1/6th lower even though the SPX was over twice as high. What Im trying to tell you is that we can go much lower I would say SPX 450-500. if that happens technically we are going to be on extremely oversold levels of a Secular bear and im going to tell you to go long (INVEST) because a new bull cyclical will start. I still think we are going to see 666 and maybe lower. According to ELLIOT WAVES we are on a corrective Wave B (up) and next leg is down (wave C)..... so form now on you have to ask yourself if C will be lower than 666? Too early to predict but when we are in the 700is again I will tell you my opinion......

You can believe what you want or you can follow any trader on the chat, but when they called for a bull market they have never told me the reasons technically...... just by seeing the market way off the lows or by seeing the market ignoring bad news like GDP, Unemployment, etc they think that the worst is over......time will tell good luck if you think so and hope you don t get stuck with longs.
I have seen experienced traders taking 70-80% Losses last year and in March. Lots of traders in this chat are part of history, most have been wiped out........ hope you are not next.