Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Monday, June 29, 2009
Friday, June 26, 2009
Thursday, June 25, 2009
MY PERFORMANCE IN 2009 COMPARED TO S&P 500
I have traded mostly on the short side with High Probability Trades without market s HYPE. I have avoided all type of trades based on News (like LEA or MTXX) with high risk involved. Im here for he long run and Im not trying to be rich from one day to the next day. Im not trying to show that Im profitable, Im just showing that you can also make money both ways (long and short) with low risk trades using 100% technical analysis.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Friday, June 19, 2009
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
YAMADA S INTERVIEW ON JUNE 1ST
LOUISE YAMADA, MANAGING DIRECTOR, LOUISE YAMADA TECHNICAL RESEARCH ADVISORS, LLC: Thank you Tom. It's a pleasure.
KEENE: And you've got your chart here 1937 to 1943, the Guadalcanal bottom in 1942, are we still mimicking the late '30s? And is this is a fake out bull market rally?
YAMADA: Well, I think that it's intriguing that we have tracked the entire 1929 to present, to '38, at least to '39 period, from 2000, which happens to have been our alternate cycle if you think of the Elliott Wave Theory that each cycle is not like the immediately prior cycle, but more like the alternate, and that was the tact we took in 2000 in anticipation of a structural Bear market.
What would ours be like? It would be less like '66 to '82, which was inflation and rising rates, and a regular, rather symmetrical pattern, and more like the alternate, which was an irregular pattern with a crash, and we've tracked it quite amazingly. It's hard to think that it's going to continue, but so far we're in that 1938 up leg.
KEENE: Well, let's frame the -- I've got the weekly chart of the SPX out here. I use a different chart than Ms. Yamada uses. I'm going to call it technical soup right now. Is there a clear picture right now?
YAMADA: Well, we titled our outlook piece, `Muddy Waters, Foggy Weather,' and I think that there are days when we still feel that way, very considerably. I think there has been improvement. There's no question that there has been some improvement. Obviously, the rally has been generous. There have been a lot of twists and turns, and whipsaws and rotations under the surface.
But at the moment, I would say that things are probably more a glass half full than half empty, at least from the way this individual's chart patterns look, because, what's happening right now looks like a bit like further consolidation, and if you get enough of that, it becomes a more positive profile.
KEN PREWITT, HOST, `BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE': So, further consolidation, Louise, for how long?
YAMADA: Well, that's a very good question. Hard to tell. What's been happening here is that at least for the major indices bucking up against the declining 200-day moving average, and we'd like to see if it's going to turn out to be a consolidation that goes higher.
We'd like to see the Dow and the S&P get out above their January '09 peaks and the November '08 peaks -- which the November '08 peaks were down 96.25 and the S&P was 1,005. Now, the NASDAQ on the S&P 400 midcap have already moved out, so they're a little bit better looking.
KEENE: Well, Louise, I'm looking at the Standard & Poor's 500 buttressing right up against a 200-day -
YAMADA: Yes.
KEENE: What is significance of the 200-day moving average? Is that a Louise Yamada or a John Murphy or a John Meggy (ph)? Who made that rule?
YAMADA: It's an observation that's been noted over time, and it's interesting that the 200-day moving average is generally placed, more or less, identically with the downtrend line from the peak. And, it's a coincidence that those two move in tandem, but I think that's why the 200- day has become significant. Now, ideally, you'd like to see the 200-day move up, and then see the 50-day cross over the 200-day. There's progressive improvements that come along step by step, just like we saw in the 2002 to 2003 period.
KEENE: Well, Louise, and folks, if you'll hear me use this phrase every once in a while, and if you're just joining us, Louise Yamada with us, always elegant, as I look at an elegant chart, which is the Standard & Poor's 500 with a 200-day moving average, nicely in order, moving downwards. Louise Yamada, do you see something different in those commodities on a tear? Can you call bottom in the commodities sector?
YAMADA: Well, I think that certainly you had a very nice run in oil. The lift through $55 put in target some of which we've already hit, $62, $67, now we have $68, $70 still out there. Ideally, one would like to see the price come back and consolidate more, because the longer something consolidates, the greater the potential for a sustained advance. Gold, similarly, looks like it's getting ready to lift - excuse me, through the prior peak, which would be very compelling. We have targets out there toward $1,300 and higher if we get through the $1,032 level, which it looks like might be -
KEENE: And, your target on oil, please.
YAMADA: We had the oil is, well we hit $62. $68, $70 is next. Ideally, it would be nice if it came back and consolidated in the mid to upper $50's for a bit, rather than just striking out on an accelerated advance.
But the dollar is breaking down. There's no question about it, and we've been concerned about that, and clearly it's back down toward $80, which is that critical 34 plus year support level that it violated a year ago, and then, of course, we went into the financial crisis, and people rushed back into what you could call the least worst currency. The dollar had a nice rally.
PREWITT: Louise, I wanted to ask you kind of a technical analysis 101 sort of question. Going back to what we started out talking about -- when you compare the chart to the late '30s with today. I mean, is that really valid. Things are so much different today than they were back then.
YAMADA: -- They're not different. I mean, you do have the cycle of falling rate. You do have the deflationary pressures, and now everybody's worrying about inflation, but I think that we still have, certainly, some deflationary concerns out there. So, it is valid. I mean, it has been valid up to this point, and it's rather extraordinary.
That was a 60% rally that divided itself into two segments. I think it was up about 43 percent and you had a 10% correction, and then another leg up to equate to a full 60 percent. And then, of course, you came off. And between 38 and 42, you ended up at a slight new low. That was a very volatile period, which I think is a lot of what we've been experiencing here, rotations. One sector goes up. Another one comes off. And then, people quickly take their profits.
PREWITT: What deflationary concerns do you see?
YAMADA: Well, I think you have the ongoing pricing issues. We have the homes, housing coming down. You still have the pressure from foreign developing nations, where you've got a lower labor price, which is part of what's been causing some of our problems here. I mean, if you think about the whole concept of the Internet and global trade, it's been like a global wage and price equalizer. Picture a seesaw. And, the U.S. was at the high end of the wage and price scale, and basically, we had the most to lose in global trade opening.
KEENE: Louise Yamada, I want to come back and continue this discussion. I really want to talk to you, as well, about all these single digit stocks we have. If you can use technical analysis with those stocks under $10, or indeed, under $5, as well. And, of course, General Motors closing at $0.75 per share on Friday. We'll see what that does in this historic Monday.
(BREAK)
KEENE: We continue with Louise Yamada. We look at the technical construction of the market. We see the movements in the Dow, Louise. Do you adapt you're charts when they move companies in and out of the Dow.
YAMADA: Well, they make the adjustment from a devisor perspective, but yes, we obviously do replace those names. And, it's interesting. General Motors, I was just looking at a table that my colleague Jonathan Lin published in our global piece, Bloomberg World Auto Manufacturer's Index, Tom, and General Motors is 0.15 of the weight. Toyota is the lead with 28.84, and Ford is right in the middle at 2.52. I mean, I can't but help of think of Schumpeter's creative destruction, and putting so much money into something that, rather than putting it into something that would be advancing the modern technology.
KEENE: Well, and Ken, that's like Robert Reich's op-ed piece, scathing op-ed piece -
PREWITT: Yes.
KEENE: - about the administration between the F (ph) and the FT.
PREWITT: Louise, about these changes in the Dow here, with the Cisco and Travelers going in, and GM and Citi going out. How does this effect you when you try to chart backwards, so to speak. I mean, GM being a 100-years- old, Cisco, not that old a company.
YAMADA: Well, it's because the Dow Jones Industrial interval adjustment in terms of the weighing, price weighing, it just gets factored right into the ongoing price.
KEENE: Louis, when you look at the single digit world, do you as a technician treat an $8 stock different than an $18 or an $80 stock?
YAMADA: Well, you chart it in a similar fashion, and proportionately, obviously, in the advance on a percentage basis, it's going to be similar to an equal percentage advance on a larger price stock, but it has certainly been discouraging to find out how many we have that have been under $10. I forget exactly what the percentage was, but it was quite large.
KEENE: When you look at -- your gold call, did I hear you say if we break through a certain level, that you're really looking for $1,300 on gold? Is that simply a signal of inflation, or is there something else going on there?
YAMADA: Well, that's a measured moved from a technical perspective. If, in fact, this consolidation that's been taking place turns out to be a rather rare configuration, which is called a head and shoulders continuation pattern, a lift through the $1,032 would be effectively moving price through the neckline of the continuation pattern.
So, you can take a measured move from the low, which was around 7 and project it above, from the head to the neckline, which is about 300 points, and project it from the breakout point forward, which takes you to 13.
KEENE: Louise Yamada, thank you so much. This historic day perspective, not only on General Motors, but on the market, even looking back to the '30s and her hallmark analysis of the Depression decade and lessons to be learned today. Louise Yamada, with Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors.
KEENE: And you've got your chart here 1937 to 1943, the Guadalcanal bottom in 1942, are we still mimicking the late '30s? And is this is a fake out bull market rally?
YAMADA: Well, I think that it's intriguing that we have tracked the entire 1929 to present, to '38, at least to '39 period, from 2000, which happens to have been our alternate cycle if you think of the Elliott Wave Theory that each cycle is not like the immediately prior cycle, but more like the alternate, and that was the tact we took in 2000 in anticipation of a structural Bear market.
What would ours be like? It would be less like '66 to '82, which was inflation and rising rates, and a regular, rather symmetrical pattern, and more like the alternate, which was an irregular pattern with a crash, and we've tracked it quite amazingly. It's hard to think that it's going to continue, but so far we're in that 1938 up leg.
KEENE: Well, let's frame the -- I've got the weekly chart of the SPX out here. I use a different chart than Ms. Yamada uses. I'm going to call it technical soup right now. Is there a clear picture right now?
YAMADA: Well, we titled our outlook piece, `Muddy Waters, Foggy Weather,' and I think that there are days when we still feel that way, very considerably. I think there has been improvement. There's no question that there has been some improvement. Obviously, the rally has been generous. There have been a lot of twists and turns, and whipsaws and rotations under the surface.
But at the moment, I would say that things are probably more a glass half full than half empty, at least from the way this individual's chart patterns look, because, what's happening right now looks like a bit like further consolidation, and if you get enough of that, it becomes a more positive profile.
KEN PREWITT, HOST, `BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE': So, further consolidation, Louise, for how long?
YAMADA: Well, that's a very good question. Hard to tell. What's been happening here is that at least for the major indices bucking up against the declining 200-day moving average, and we'd like to see if it's going to turn out to be a consolidation that goes higher.
We'd like to see the Dow and the S&P get out above their January '09 peaks and the November '08 peaks -- which the November '08 peaks were down 96.25 and the S&P was 1,005. Now, the NASDAQ on the S&P 400 midcap have already moved out, so they're a little bit better looking.
KEENE: Well, Louise, I'm looking at the Standard & Poor's 500 buttressing right up against a 200-day -
YAMADA: Yes.
KEENE: What is significance of the 200-day moving average? Is that a Louise Yamada or a John Murphy or a John Meggy (ph)? Who made that rule?
YAMADA: It's an observation that's been noted over time, and it's interesting that the 200-day moving average is generally placed, more or less, identically with the downtrend line from the peak. And, it's a coincidence that those two move in tandem, but I think that's why the 200- day has become significant. Now, ideally, you'd like to see the 200-day move up, and then see the 50-day cross over the 200-day. There's progressive improvements that come along step by step, just like we saw in the 2002 to 2003 period.
KEENE: Well, Louise, and folks, if you'll hear me use this phrase every once in a while, and if you're just joining us, Louise Yamada with us, always elegant, as I look at an elegant chart, which is the Standard & Poor's 500 with a 200-day moving average, nicely in order, moving downwards. Louise Yamada, do you see something different in those commodities on a tear? Can you call bottom in the commodities sector?
YAMADA: Well, I think that certainly you had a very nice run in oil. The lift through $55 put in target some of which we've already hit, $62, $67, now we have $68, $70 still out there. Ideally, one would like to see the price come back and consolidate more, because the longer something consolidates, the greater the potential for a sustained advance. Gold, similarly, looks like it's getting ready to lift - excuse me, through the prior peak, which would be very compelling. We have targets out there toward $1,300 and higher if we get through the $1,032 level, which it looks like might be -
KEENE: And, your target on oil, please.
YAMADA: We had the oil is, well we hit $62. $68, $70 is next. Ideally, it would be nice if it came back and consolidated in the mid to upper $50's for a bit, rather than just striking out on an accelerated advance.
But the dollar is breaking down. There's no question about it, and we've been concerned about that, and clearly it's back down toward $80, which is that critical 34 plus year support level that it violated a year ago, and then, of course, we went into the financial crisis, and people rushed back into what you could call the least worst currency. The dollar had a nice rally.
PREWITT: Louise, I wanted to ask you kind of a technical analysis 101 sort of question. Going back to what we started out talking about -- when you compare the chart to the late '30s with today. I mean, is that really valid. Things are so much different today than they were back then.
YAMADA: -- They're not different. I mean, you do have the cycle of falling rate. You do have the deflationary pressures, and now everybody's worrying about inflation, but I think that we still have, certainly, some deflationary concerns out there. So, it is valid. I mean, it has been valid up to this point, and it's rather extraordinary.
That was a 60% rally that divided itself into two segments. I think it was up about 43 percent and you had a 10% correction, and then another leg up to equate to a full 60 percent. And then, of course, you came off. And between 38 and 42, you ended up at a slight new low. That was a very volatile period, which I think is a lot of what we've been experiencing here, rotations. One sector goes up. Another one comes off. And then, people quickly take their profits.
PREWITT: What deflationary concerns do you see?
YAMADA: Well, I think you have the ongoing pricing issues. We have the homes, housing coming down. You still have the pressure from foreign developing nations, where you've got a lower labor price, which is part of what's been causing some of our problems here. I mean, if you think about the whole concept of the Internet and global trade, it's been like a global wage and price equalizer. Picture a seesaw. And, the U.S. was at the high end of the wage and price scale, and basically, we had the most to lose in global trade opening.
KEENE: Louise Yamada, I want to come back and continue this discussion. I really want to talk to you, as well, about all these single digit stocks we have. If you can use technical analysis with those stocks under $10, or indeed, under $5, as well. And, of course, General Motors closing at $0.75 per share on Friday. We'll see what that does in this historic Monday.
(BREAK)
KEENE: We continue with Louise Yamada. We look at the technical construction of the market. We see the movements in the Dow, Louise. Do you adapt you're charts when they move companies in and out of the Dow.
YAMADA: Well, they make the adjustment from a devisor perspective, but yes, we obviously do replace those names. And, it's interesting. General Motors, I was just looking at a table that my colleague Jonathan Lin published in our global piece, Bloomberg World Auto Manufacturer's Index, Tom, and General Motors is 0.15 of the weight. Toyota is the lead with 28.84, and Ford is right in the middle at 2.52. I mean, I can't but help of think of Schumpeter's creative destruction, and putting so much money into something that, rather than putting it into something that would be advancing the modern technology.
KEENE: Well, and Ken, that's like Robert Reich's op-ed piece, scathing op-ed piece -
PREWITT: Yes.
KEENE: - about the administration between the F (ph) and the FT.
PREWITT: Louise, about these changes in the Dow here, with the Cisco and Travelers going in, and GM and Citi going out. How does this effect you when you try to chart backwards, so to speak. I mean, GM being a 100-years- old, Cisco, not that old a company.
YAMADA: Well, it's because the Dow Jones Industrial interval adjustment in terms of the weighing, price weighing, it just gets factored right into the ongoing price.
KEENE: Louis, when you look at the single digit world, do you as a technician treat an $8 stock different than an $18 or an $80 stock?
YAMADA: Well, you chart it in a similar fashion, and proportionately, obviously, in the advance on a percentage basis, it's going to be similar to an equal percentage advance on a larger price stock, but it has certainly been discouraging to find out how many we have that have been under $10. I forget exactly what the percentage was, but it was quite large.
KEENE: When you look at -- your gold call, did I hear you say if we break through a certain level, that you're really looking for $1,300 on gold? Is that simply a signal of inflation, or is there something else going on there?
YAMADA: Well, that's a measured moved from a technical perspective. If, in fact, this consolidation that's been taking place turns out to be a rather rare configuration, which is called a head and shoulders continuation pattern, a lift through the $1,032 would be effectively moving price through the neckline of the continuation pattern.
So, you can take a measured move from the low, which was around 7 and project it above, from the head to the neckline, which is about 300 points, and project it from the breakout point forward, which takes you to 13.
KEENE: Louise Yamada, thank you so much. This historic day perspective, not only on General Motors, but on the market, even looking back to the '30s and her hallmark analysis of the Depression decade and lessons to be learned today. Louise Yamada, with Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors.
The first thing you have to know is that we never left the BEAR MARKET and the first thing you have to know is the meaning of Secular. The word “secular” means long periods of time, and indeed the secular bear is well-deserving of this moniker. Throughout history, secular bears have had average durations of 17 years each! These great bears follow great bulls, which also happen to average 17 years. One complete secular-bull-to-secular-bear cycle runs 34 years, a third of a century.
In each Secular Bull or Bear there are cycles (the one that I was talking earlier today in the chat, that could last months of even a year or two. See what happened in Bear market of 2002 and 2003)
The larger bear cycle is measured in decades, while the smaller are measured in months or years. The larger bears are known as secular bears while the smaller ones are cyclical bears.
Usually Secular bears are driven by valuations, cyclical bears are usually driven by sentiment. Our current secular bear started back in early 2000 because stock valuations were extreme, remember the TECH bubble in 1999-2000?
So from a valuation perspective, today’s secular bear is indeed only half over. Over the next 8 years, the stock markets are very unlikely to get materially higher than their early 2000 and late 2007 levels at best. This is around 1550 on the SPX. when you are in a secular bear market you have to trade it with caution. I would say INVEST instead. If you are trading with a longer outlook you have to be careful going long (position size).
But an overarching 17-year sideways grind certainly doesn’t mean they should totally avoid stocks in a secular bear, it does not mean that you cannot go long stocks or we wont have rallies. They are not 17 years of falling prices, but 17 years of sideways action between cyclical-bull-then-cyclical-bear cycle. Companies and stock markets don’t cease to exist just because people are scared, life and the economy always march on.
From March 2000 to October 2002, the SPX fell 49% in a cyclical bear. But out of those oversold depths a new cyclical bull emerged that carried this index 102% higher by October 2007, this is called CYCLICAL BULL within a Secular bear
So from its late 2007 heights another cyclical bear emerged. This one dragged the SPX down 57% by March 2009 as you might have experienced it, once again carrying it to the bottom of its secular trading range.
So this particular cyclical BULL (if you want to call it like that, I call it Bear market RALLY) we’ve entered in the last 3 months is about to finish or have already ended. I never bought this rally thinking in a longer term, Im shorting this rally because I know we are going lower...I have been scaling in two big positions like SMN and QID.
If Im not wrong today you asked me about valuation..... Between October 9th, 2002 and October 9th, 2007, the SPX blasted 102% higher in one of the longest cyclical bulls, yet after this run, after more than doubling in exactly 5 years, the valuations at the late 2007 top (21.3x) were lower than at the late 2002 bottom. This is about 1/6th lower even though the SPX was over twice as high. What Im trying to tell you is that we can go much lower I would say SPX 450-500. if that happens technically we are going to be on extremely oversold levels of a Secular bear and im going to tell you to go long (INVEST) because a new bull cyclical will start. I still think we are going to see 666 and maybe lower. According to ELLIOT WAVES we are on a corrective Wave B (up) and next leg is down (wave C)..... so form now on you have to ask yourself if C will be lower than 666? Too early to predict but when we are in the 700is again I will tell you my opinion......
You can believe what you want or you can follow any trader on the chat, but when they called for a bull market they have never told me the reasons technically...... just by seeing the market way off the lows or by seeing the market ignoring bad news like GDP, Unemployment, etc they think that the worst is over......time will tell good luck if you think so and hope you don t get stuck with longs.
I have seen experienced traders taking 70-80% Losses last year and in March. Lots of traders in this chat are part of history, most have been wiped out........ hope you are not next.
In each Secular Bull or Bear there are cycles (the one that I was talking earlier today in the chat, that could last months of even a year or two. See what happened in Bear market of 2002 and 2003)
The larger bear cycle is measured in decades, while the smaller are measured in months or years. The larger bears are known as secular bears while the smaller ones are cyclical bears.
Usually Secular bears are driven by valuations, cyclical bears are usually driven by sentiment. Our current secular bear started back in early 2000 because stock valuations were extreme, remember the TECH bubble in 1999-2000?
So from a valuation perspective, today’s secular bear is indeed only half over. Over the next 8 years, the stock markets are very unlikely to get materially higher than their early 2000 and late 2007 levels at best. This is around 1550 on the SPX. when you are in a secular bear market you have to trade it with caution. I would say INVEST instead. If you are trading with a longer outlook you have to be careful going long (position size).
But an overarching 17-year sideways grind certainly doesn’t mean they should totally avoid stocks in a secular bear, it does not mean that you cannot go long stocks or we wont have rallies. They are not 17 years of falling prices, but 17 years of sideways action between cyclical-bull-then-cyclical-bear cycle. Companies and stock markets don’t cease to exist just because people are scared, life and the economy always march on.
From March 2000 to October 2002, the SPX fell 49% in a cyclical bear. But out of those oversold depths a new cyclical bull emerged that carried this index 102% higher by October 2007, this is called CYCLICAL BULL within a Secular bear
So from its late 2007 heights another cyclical bear emerged. This one dragged the SPX down 57% by March 2009 as you might have experienced it, once again carrying it to the bottom of its secular trading range.
So this particular cyclical BULL (if you want to call it like that, I call it Bear market RALLY) we’ve entered in the last 3 months is about to finish or have already ended. I never bought this rally thinking in a longer term, Im shorting this rally because I know we are going lower...I have been scaling in two big positions like SMN and QID.
If Im not wrong today you asked me about valuation..... Between October 9th, 2002 and October 9th, 2007, the SPX blasted 102% higher in one of the longest cyclical bulls, yet after this run, after more than doubling in exactly 5 years, the valuations at the late 2007 top (21.3x) were lower than at the late 2002 bottom. This is about 1/6th lower even though the SPX was over twice as high. What Im trying to tell you is that we can go much lower I would say SPX 450-500. if that happens technically we are going to be on extremely oversold levels of a Secular bear and im going to tell you to go long (INVEST) because a new bull cyclical will start. I still think we are going to see 666 and maybe lower. According to ELLIOT WAVES we are on a corrective Wave B (up) and next leg is down (wave C)..... so form now on you have to ask yourself if C will be lower than 666? Too early to predict but when we are in the 700is again I will tell you my opinion......
You can believe what you want or you can follow any trader on the chat, but when they called for a bull market they have never told me the reasons technically...... just by seeing the market way off the lows or by seeing the market ignoring bad news like GDP, Unemployment, etc they think that the worst is over......time will tell good luck if you think so and hope you don t get stuck with longs.
I have seen experienced traders taking 70-80% Losses last year and in March. Lots of traders in this chat are part of history, most have been wiped out........ hope you are not next.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Thursday, June 11, 2009
BULL BEAR SPREAD
Overview
There was a large increase in the advisor bullishness over the last week, in spite of the bankruptcy of General Motors, and it's delisting from the NYSE, plus a further increase in the unemployment rate to 9.4%. More and more analysts are pointing to an end to the recession by the end of 2009 and with forecasts that the economy will soon be growing again. The repayment of TARP loans by some banks was given as further evidence that the worst is over. Stock markets look to the future and are typically already rallying while the broad economy is still weak.
The bulls jumped over 5% to 47.7%, from 42.5% the previous week. That is their highest levels since the first week of 2008, when their number was declining from even higher readings with the market top that autumn. The bulls are also up sharply from their readings at the bear markets lows from October 2008 through March 2009. As often occurs we noted the fewest bulls, 22.2% at the first bottom last October and then a slightly higher reading at 26.5% in March.
The bears fell to 23.3% from 25.3% the previous week. That is the fewest bears since December 2007 when we counted just 22.4%. During the recent bear market bottom we saw the bears at 54.4% in October and 47.2% in March.
Since advisory sentiment is a 'contrary indicator' the latest bull-bear data must be viewed with concern. One of the elements of the trading since May-8 has been a rush to buy every small pull-back. Money managers who missed the Mar-9 to May-8 surge needed to quickly move into stocks in case markets moved higher still. The increase in optimism suggests they are much more committed now.
For the fourth week in a row, the bears were exceeded by the correction group. Their number fell to 29.0% from 32.2% last week. This group is mostly bullish but they expect an intervening market retreat before the rally begins. They look to buy on dips. Advisors often shift from bearish to correction before they are ready to make a bullish commitment.
The difference between the bulls and bears was +24.4%, up from +17.2% a week ago and still moving in the wrong direction. Readings over +20 are negative while at the October 2007 high, there were +40.6% more bulls than bears. The spread was below '-20.0' at the recent bear market low, a great time to buy.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
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